Here are George Clooney's Oscar Predictions.

Although I'm sure the Cloonz will take home the gold (oh, crap, sorry George, there IS no gold for Best Oscar Predictor),* I'll still be interested to see if my own 2008 Oscar predictions, which (I'll be the first to admit) reveal the application of some complicated and possibly stupid logic, hold any water.

*But there can be. Oh, there can be.

from RVANews, of course!

My annual exhaustive list of what’s going to win Academy Awards, what should win Academy Awards, and the wisdom to see the difference.

(For the full list of nominees, go to Oscar.com. I left out some categories because I got bored trying to pretend like I knew anything about foreign short films.)

Best Actor

Who will win

Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood

Who should win

Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood. I had to type that three times because my fingers kept putting “Johnny Depp” of their own volition. It’s not often that I bypass JD in favor of anyone else, so ol’ Milkshake On My Mustache must have done a pretty decent job.

Best Supporting Actor

Who will win

Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men

Who should win

Casey Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. It was a tough call for this one, but I kept thinking to myself, “Which is harder to do, act snivelly and terrified or act cold and impassive?” I decided on “snivelly and terrified,” but maybe it’s because I’m naturally cold and impassive? The Academy will vote for Javier Bardem, and it’s because he a) is a well-respected actor in various excellent Spanish films, so they won’t want to act like they respect him less than Ben “Dullard” Affleck’s little brother and b) was brave enough to sport that weird haircut.

Best Actress

Who will win

Marion Cotillard for La Vie En Rose

Who should win

Julie Christie for Away from Her. However, the only reason I’m saying she won’t win (she did win a similar Golden Globe, after all) is because Cotillard has the mighty biopic formula behind her. On the other hand, Christie has longevity, and the Academy likes to slip in unofficial lifetime achievement awards often enough, but it’s usually not for something major like Best Actor/Actress. I was burned by this realization last year, after I swore up and down that Peter O’Toole would bring it home.

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win

Cate Blanchett for I’m Not There

Who should win

Saoirse Ronan for Atonement. Here is a category that I would say could easily go to a young girl, yet I am not entirely certain that Cate Blanchett can be beat, especially when she’s doing a novel take on the biopic formula. Saoirse Ronan is 14 and wonderfully chilling (yet somehow easy to relate to) as Briony Tallis, though, and as much as Blanchett usually deserves all of her praise, it’s hard to forgive her for Elizabeth: The Golden Age.*

Animated Feature Film

Who will win

Ratatouille

Who should win

Persepolis, just because it’s neat and different, and because rats are gross.

Art Direction

Who will win

There Will Be Blood

Who should win

I’m OK with There Will Be Blood winning, actually, even though I think Atonement was equally as well put-together. I feel such enthusiasm for both of these films that I tend to change my vote by the minute, but it’s because the combination dry/oily TWBB** and the lush afternoon setting of Atonement both still remain vivid dream settings in my brain.

Cinematography

Who will win

I have no idea.

Who should win

I…am at a loss for words over here. We have Atonement, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and The Assassination of Jesse James. It was a year of beautiful films, that’s for sure. In fact, if movies were entirely about cinematography, 2007 would have gone on the books for producing the greatest number of perfect films. I think these films will probably have votes split between them, and whoever wins will just be lucky with a few extra votes, but nobody engraves “Arbitrary Winner” on an Academy Award statuette, and there’s no second place.

Costumes

Who will win

Elizabeth: The Golden Age.

Who should win

I’ve learned my lesson with costumes as well. I thought last year that maybe something a little more subtle would win over Marie Antoinette, but let’s get one thing straight. The Academy aren’t geniuses. They aren’t top fashion gurus who would honestly believe that a cut of a certain suit is more fantastic than a 75 giant, 18th century French silk dresses. So therefore I can say that Atonement should get some sort of something for Keira Knightley’s green dress, but Elizabeth probably had a lot more house elves working a lot more hours, and I think the Academy is interested in spectacle. More on this later.

Directing

Who will win

No Country for Old Men

Who should win

There Will Be Blood. I mean, whatever. I love, love, love that there is a neo-Western rivalry this year among film enthusiasts, and I’m doing my part to further it. I mean, seriously, it warms my heart that here we are, discussing which is better — Amazing Film 1 or Amazing Film 2 or maybe over there Amazing Film 3. We’ve come a long way since Titanic and Gladiator, and hopefully there won’t be any relapses anytime soon.

Documentary Feature

Who will win

Sicko

Who should win

Sicko. It’s timely.

Documentary Short

Who will win

Sari’s Mother

Who should win

Do you think I actually watched any of these documentary short films? We live in Richmond, VA. We were lucky to get Juno. I just chose that one because it caught my eye, but best of luck to you all. Keep, er, making those short documentaries. I’m sure someone loves them somewhere in the world.

Film Editing

Who will win

No Country for Old Men

Who should win

Anybody but No Country for Old Men. My major problems with this film (although again, if this is the weakest link for me, that’s a pretty strong chain we’re dealing with) had to do with the editing, but I bet to voters the characteristics that I thought weakened the film at least caught their notice. I was surprised Atonement wasn’t nominated for this category as well. I certainly hope The Bourne Ultimatum’s happy.

Foreign Language Film

Who will win

???

Who should win

How about “Who should be nominated?” Didn’t The Diving Bell and the Butterfly turn everyone’s heads into an exploded pulp? Isn’t it nominated for multiple other categories? Didn’t it win the Golden Globe? Is there a misprint on the nominations? How can the Academy have possibly skipped it for this category?

Makeup

Who will win

La Vie En Rose

Who should win

La Vie En Rose. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End had neat makeup? I mean, maybe to cover JD’s famous tattoo of my face over his heart, but other than that, the award will and should go to La Vie En Rose. I traditionally hate aging makeup, but Cotillard became older than I’d ever seen anyone become in a movie.

Music (score)

Who will win

Atonement

Who should win

No Country for Old Men. Haha! Psych! That movie didn’t have a score! Oh man, the Coen Brothers really showed us, huh? But seriously, though, 3:10 to Yuma had a noticeably good score, but I think the neo-Western appreciators will be scattered all over the place (like tumbleweed?) and those who were delighted by Atonement’s typewriter-enhanced score will be gratified.

Music (song)

Who will win

Enchanted, for the cheerful song about something or other

Who should win

Whatever other song Enchanted is nominated for. Just so I can say I didn’t agree.

Visual Effects

Who will win

Who cares

Who should win

Did you guys SEE Transformers? I thought my Honda Civic was going to stand up and wave gleefully to me as I crossed the parking lot after seeing this film in the theater.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Who will win

Atonement

Who should win

Atonement, if only because the book was one of the best books I’ve read in a very long time, and the movie, in my opinion, did nothing to detract from the whole Atonement experience. That’s not common, and I think the Academy will like that as well.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Who will win

Juno (she boldly typed)

Who should win

Juno. It’s a slow year for original screenplays when the latest Pixar film is nominated. I’m pretty sure Juno is one of the most perfect movies of its ilk, though, and I’m rooting for it enough to make it my prediction as well as my own pick.

Best Picture

Who will win

Atonement (wait, wait, stay with me here)

Who should win

There Will Be Blood. I read an interesting article about how Juno will win Best Picture (at the same moment at which Tim Burton shaves his head and puts on a checked ivory-on-white shirt from Banana Republic, coincidentally). Their logic was that the Academy likes films with clear messages, and, to paraphrase heavily, all of the other nominees this year require too much thought. I hear that. I also think it’s possible that the fierce NCFOM vs. TWBB battle will end up destroying either film’s chance to win. Juno, however wonderful it was (and it really, really was), is still thoroughly a comedy, and a comedy hasn’t won a Best Picture award since Driving Miss Daisy. So while I think that the “clear message” argument is sound, the author of that article seemed to forget that Atonement’s message was made of sharp crystal, yet it also combines breathtaking cinematography, a clever score, beautiful writing, and a war. It’s a formidable foe, and though I may think TWBB might have been slightly more consistent, I won’t begrudge Joe Wright and the Atonement crew the award.

The Oscars are February 24th at 8pm on ABC. If you need me I will be at my place, yelling.

*Oddly enough, she’s nominated for Best Actress for this awful film. If she wins, I’m moving to a farm with no electricity so I can never, ever watch a movie again.
**Skincare joke!

4 stars

Greetings, good people! I have been enjoying three days of a work conference in yon Colonial Williamsburg! Everything is so pleasant here; there are guys in three-cornered hats, sheep safely grazing, and everywhere is the scent of a wood-burning stove. The only blight on this “revolutionary experience,” as they keep calling it, is the fact that a little voice in my brain keeps reminding me, “At some point, you have to sit down and write something about The Savages.”

The Savages, a little film about what it’s like to put a dementia-addled parent into a nursing home (written and directed by Tamara Jenkins and nominated for a couple of Oscars), is probably the exact opposite of a joyful, wood-burning-stove-scented, Colonial conference. It’s not that I didn’t feel that the film was well-made. On the contrary, it’s actually a pretty perfect representation of the guilt and self-disgust one feels while inexpertly dealing with an aged parent. But, by King George!, if I wanted to be reminded of the grayest and most unpleasant parts of my day-to-day life (parts that I have gotten shamefully good at stowing away so that I don’t have to face them unless absolutely necessary), I wouldn’t be seeking escape at the movies!

I understand why there has been an increasing number of films made address these thorny issues in a bleak and realistic manner, I really do. Hip filmmakers and their hip audiences are fast approaching the age where these sorts of things are becoming more and more relevant. You work through your feelings by turning them into art, and you hope that that art resonates with its intended audience. Well, la-de-effing-da, Tamara Jenkins. It resonated. Good for you. No go make a movie about an 18th-century American family who makes their own candles and barrels and heroically fights to lessen the tax on butter churns.

Yes, yes, I am being a little harsh. I don’t really mean it. I know it’s not everybody who happens to have a situation eerily similar to that of siblings Jon (Philip Seymour Hoffman) and Wendy (Laura Linney) Savage. Not now, anyway. But I hate to tell you this, there’s an excellent chance that one day you will. And for that reason, I feel like The Savages should be required viewing for young and old alike. Because as much as I bluster on about the film, the reason it made me so uncomfortable was its accuracy. It’s easy to relate to Wendy Savage, as she constantly second-guesses her own decisions, but it’s just as easy to feel for Jon, who wants to take action, accept the inevitable, and move on. Guilt, shame, powerlessness, and an inability to equate this confused old person in front of you with the powerful figure from your childhood — these things have been happening to adult children for centuries, and it’s not likely to get any better. One thing this movie can give you is the small comfort that you’re not the only one in this predicament, even as it reveals to you the unsavory duties and their corresponding troubling emotions you are likely to experience at least once in your life.

And if you think that’s bad, try watching Away from Her for a powerful glimpse of what it’s like as the spouse of a dementia victim. These movies feel like spring training for a future part of our lives we don’t think much about beyond our 401(k) contributions, and the value of these cinematic resources are probably more than we can even understand at the moment. But all the same, I still stand behind this petition I just wrote to the residents of Hollywood en masse. It’s entitled “Let Them Watch Stardust (And Leave Discomfort to Real Life),” and after you attend your required screening, I will be standing outside of the theater with a clipboard and a pen. No matter how much you enjoy the film, I’m willing to bet you’ll want to sign.

Voting begins today and ends February 19th. I'm keeping my own predictions close to the vest until after that date, but I will say that I think the Golden Globes will be pretty indicative and that Barack Obama will win Best Actor.

*Since it's a local theater and it's RVANews, this contest is probably only interesting to Richmonders, officially, but unofficially - Ross is a pretty lenient guy, and Westhampton is a Regal theater, so a gift card there would be good at lots of other theaters...

I think a fair amount of people will agree with me when I say that I was more than slightly relieved that the Golden Globes were downgraded to a press conference this year due to the Writers Guild strike.* Not that I anticipate the ol’ Globes with as passionate of a love/hate fervor as I do the Oscars, but I still do a lot of pacing while Jessica Alba (beautifully) takes forever to rip open an envelope, and I have been known to throw an item or two when the wrong name, according to me, is called.*

Of course, the panel of voters for the Globes is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association - i.e. people from all over the world who report on, assess, and otherwise critique films. The Academy, on the other hand, is an often infuriating pack of industry folk. What’s the difference, you say, if you haven’t yet dozed off? Well, to put it bluntly, the industry would be responsible for movies like Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties and the press would be responsible for letting the rest of us know to avoid it. So the Globes are more likely to give credit where it’s due and less likely to mistake a best-seller for a best-picture.

It’s not an exact science, though. Last year, the HFPA dutifully followed the Biopic Formula, which is an equation where you put in Jamie Foxx and come out with an award for “best impression of a famous and preferably dead person.”* Helen Mirren, Forest Whitaker, Dreamgirls, The Queen … all were given praise that was of course echoed at the more predictable Oscars ceremony the next month. But in 2006, more creative films like Transamerica and Brokeback Mountain were showered with Globes, whereas the Oscars goofily handed Best Picture to Crash. I’ve gotten to where I can get my Oscar picks together before nominations are even published, but who knows what those crazy Golden Globes are going to do? Will they blunder around predictably like the Oscars, or will they hone in on educated, deserving choices? Will it be a year of feast or a year of famine? What does that even mean?

Heave your sigh of relief. I know I did when I saw the results, which took me three minutes to experience instead of the usual three hours. You may set your queue by the Golden Globes in 2008. It’s official. Atonement (Best Drama and Best Original Score) is a fantastic achievement, and I can’t tell you how excited I am about Julie Christie’s win for Best Actress in a Drama — anyone that has talked to me in the past few months*** has probably heard me mistily gush about Away from Her. Even thinking about it makes me want to burst into tears and hug everyone. Sweeney Todd (Best Comedy/Musical) is probably the closest thing to an exact opposite of Juno, so it’s difficult to compare them, but I can’t find it in myself to deny Tim Burton and Johnny Depp (who also won Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical) anything. Also, a successful horror film that is also a musical and a comedy may be a more impressive feat than just another deadpan, offbeat comedy,even if that comedy was done perfectly. Likewise, I loved Ellen Page in Juno, but Marion Cotillard’ s Edith Piaf in La Vie En Rose was astounding, and don’t give me any of that “Ohhh! What about your loathing for the Biopic Formula!” You obviously give me too much credit if you think I have any idea what Edith Piaf was really like in real life. She could have been a fictional character, for all I care. Cotillard’s performance was worth several awards, no matter how close a copy she was to Piaf.

And, naturally, the icing on the cake for me was the award for Best Original Song, which went to a little ditty from Into the Wild by a guy you may have heard of…Pearl Jam frontman Eddie Vedder. I’ve got another formula that I’m dying to test out, and I call it “The Nineties Will Be Back Any Minute,” in which Soundgarden is multiplied by black fingernail polish and the outcome is free tickets to the Stone Temple Pilots reunion tour.

We dodged some bullets with American Gangster and (my spine turns to ice to recall this film) Across the Universe, but my hopes are high that maybe, just maybe, the Oscars will square its shoulders, throw caution to the wind, and make nothing but excellent choices this year. And if so, at least the Writers Guild strike will ensure that all the beautiful people won’t get swallowed up by the earth cracking open in surprise.

*Hey, you guys have your football, I have my cinematic achievement award ceremonies.
**Hey, you guys have your periodic table, I have my Jamie Foxx.
***Hey, you guys have your “conversation skills,” I have my “incessant chatter about movies.”

(from my review at RVAnews)

I’m upset because it’s probably not feasible to watch Atonement every day.

Seeing it in theaters, certainly, is impractical after three or four times. I mean, I have to eat, after all. Then I guess I could buy it on DVD, but even then I could probably only watch it ten or eleven times before those others who live in my house start complaining. Plus, my Netflix queue would languish, and I’d fall way, way behind in my goal of seeing every movie ever.*

My recourse, therefore, is to try and remember as much as possible of Joe Wright’s painstakingly crafted film. It’s not difficult to do. The lush world of British aristocrats of the Thirties is the setting of the first third of the film, and within its sunlit idleness, tension sparks. There’s Briony Tallis (Saiorse Ronan), the thirteen-year-old little sister who struggles to be taken seriously, and it is partly because we remember the painful confusions of pre-adolescence that we are able to understand, if not sympathize with, the actions that end up cementing three fates. You see, her older sister, Cecilia (Keira Knightley in the most amazing dress of her career) is awkwardly in love with the housekeeper’s son, Robbie (James McAvoy). Briony happens to witness some poorly-planned moments during their brief romance, misinterprets their meaning, and, presto! All of a sudden it’s five years later, Robbie’s struggling to stay alive in World War II, Cecilia is alone and penniless, and Briony has a guilty conscience.

Get over yourselves, right? I mean, Robbie’s case is a sad one, but it is a war, after all. Surely there would be a good chance he’d have ended up fighting anyway, and even if he hadn’t, what makes his own story any more tragic than any other soldier stripped from his family, homeland, wife, and mother? Robbie himself reminds us everything between him and Cecilia boils down to just a few illicit moments in a library. When the entire world is being ripped apart by a war, is this really something to cry about?

But suddenly you realize that Wright isn’t trying to aggrandize the plight of his characters. He represents the gruesomeness of World War II as vividly as he does the peaceful idylls of the Tallis estate. In a magnificent sweeping shot that seems to last for hours, Robbie is shown as just a tiny part of a horrific bloody mess, and Cecilia is just one among hundreds of nurses trying to eke a living while helping the cause in London. It’s Briony that this film is about — how even in the midst of such chaos, human nature can be overwhelmed by guilt. And is it guilt that makes Briony so self-absorbed or is it self-absorption that makes her so guilty? For the film calls her reliability both as a witness and as a narrator into question. Briony didn’t commit the crime for which Robbie was accused, she didn’t withhold evidence that would prove his innocence as some characters did, she didn’t write the incriminating letter, she didn’t start the war or force him into enlisting, yet her sister and her sister’s faithful lover spent the rest of their lives despising her and suffering because of her actions. Or did they? Isn’t it possible that the two forgot about each other in the face of real tragedy and that Atonement is just another of Briony’s tales?

I’ve seen a number of films lately, but it’s still Atonement that I keep going back to, asking these questions and marveling at the film for filmmaking’s sake. It’s this year’s Notes on a Scandal, in both its elegant structure and its insistence that, yes, British people DO behave badly once in awhile. Who knew?

*Don’t try and test this goal by gifting me The Santa Clause 2. Tim Allen is so retired it’s like he barely even existed in the first place.

Here's a little slice:

The first clear intentional contender this Fall is 3:10 to Yuma. Even my brother, who hated Stardust (?!?), loved this James Mangold Western. I had heard so much about it, and it was so universally celebrated that I sat in the theater during the previews, pre-basking in the glow. “This movie is bound to change my life,” I thought happily.

Well?? Did it? What happened? Did Christian Bale tear his shirt off and run around singing songs from Newsies? Did my mind explode with the sheer joy of a shoot 'em up Western? Find out right here.

And take a gander around the rest of the site, why don't you.

The situation is as follows:

We all try to think as the Academy would* and make our predictions for the 79th Annual Academy Awards (hereafter referred to as the "Oscars"). We do not necessarily pick the results that we hope will happen, we pick the results we think will happen. Each category is assigned a point value, and on Feb. 25, after Oscar Night, the results are tabulated, and the person with the highest number of points wins. The three losers (hereafter referred to as the "jokers") will host a movie-watching night at which each will provide the food or drink at which he or she excels, and the winner gets to choose the movie and brag forever.

We have done a lot of research and seen a lot of films in order to make this as competitive as possible. Choose the tag "awards" on the Misanthropic Review to view a handy list of the Oscar contenders I've already reviewed, just to bone up.

In addition, just so my position is clear, I've picked my own personal favorites that would win if the Academy was composed of me, myself, and someone I had complete control over. These picks are indicated by an asterisk(*). My picks for the Academy will be bolded and italicized. Any explanatory notes will follow the category.

Here are my picks (list of nominees copied from www.oscars.com):

NOMINATIONS BY CATEGORY - 79TH AWARDS

Warning! This is extremely detailed!

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Leonardo DiCaprio - BLOOD DIAMOND
Ryan Gosling - HALF NELSON
Peter O'Toole - VENUS*
Will Smith - THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Forest Whitaker - THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

(I haven't actually seen this movie, but I feel like Peter O'Toole deserves an Academy Award just on principle, and I feel like the Academy will agree. They think that way. They're always honoring old folks just because they've been around.)

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jackie Earle Haley - LITTLE CHILDREN
Djimon Hounsou - BLOOD DIAMOND
Eddie Murphy - DREAMGIRLS
Mark Wahlberg - THE DEPARTED*

This is going to happen because of the Biopic Formula. However, Mark Wahlberg rules and was the best thing about The Departed and deserves some praise.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Penélope Cruz - VOLVER
Judi Dench - NOTES ON A SCANDAL*
Helen Mirren - THE QUEEN
Meryl Streep - THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
Kate Winslet - LITTLE CHILDREN

Biopic Formula again, but I was blown away by Judi Dench in Notes on a Scandal.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Adriana Barraza - BABEL
Cate Blanchett - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Abigail Breslin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jennifer Hudson - DREAMGIRLS
Rinko Kikuchi - BABEL*

I changed my personal favorite after I saw Babel last night. I had been pulling for Abigail Breslin, but I can support Little Miss Sunshine by rooting for it for Best Picture instead. Rinko Kikuchi was completely amazing but is no match for the mighty Formula. Better luck next time.

Best animated feature film of the year

CARS*
HAPPY FEET
MONSTER HOUSE

Pixar wins everything all the time, but it deserves it. Even the commercials for Happy Feet made me use one of my own happy feet to kick in the television screen.

Achievement in art direction

DREAMGIRLS
THE GOOD SHEPHERD
PAN'S LABYRINTH*
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
THE PRESTIGE

As much as I want to root for anything starring the unsinkable Johnny Depp, Pan's Labyrinth's art direction far supercedes any of these other films by several miles.

Achievement in cinematography

THE BLACK DAHLIA
CHILDREN OF MEN*
THE ILLUSIONIST
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE PRESTIGE

It's funny that The Prestige is nominated for all this stuff. I mean it was good, but it wasn't that good, and it certainly wasn't visually stunning. Throwing a couple of hot guys in your film does not equal Achievement in Cinematography. Children of Men will win this one for coming up with an amazingly shot futuristic landscape (but don't get me started about the story behind it).

Achievement in costume design

CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
DREAMGIRLS
MARIE ANTOINETTE*
THE QUEEN

For some reason, everyone goes nuts over the entertaining but certainly not Oscar-quality Devil Wears Prada. I bet this is how the Academy will give the movie some props.

Achievement in directing

BABEL
THE DEPARTED*
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
THE QUEEN
UNITED 93

I feel so strongly about the direction of this movie that I'm willing to risk these points. I want to say that it's going to go to Clint Eastwood for Letters from Iwo Jima, but maybe lightning doesn't strike twice. The Departed was so good and so well-directed that maybe the depth of my feeling for it will change fate. Who knows. I thought Gangs of New York was the worst movie ever, and that certainly got a lot of awards, so you can never tell with Martin Scorcese's shaky relationship with the Academy.

Best documentary feature

DELIVER US FROM EVIL
AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH*
IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS
JESUS CAMP
MY COUNTRY, MY COUNTRY

It would be simply cruel to deny Al THIS election.

Best documentary short subject

THE BLOOD OF YINGZHOU DISTRICT
RECYCLED LIFE
REHEARSING A DREAM
TWO HANDS

I picked this at random. It's like the SATs!

Achievement in film editing

BABEL
BLOOD DIAMOND
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED *
UNITED 93

Babel was superbly edited, but The Departed's editing was as good as it's direction, and we all know how I feel about that.

Best foreign language film of the year

AFTER THE WEDDING
DAYS OF GLORY (INDIGÈNES)
THE LIVES OF OTHERS
PAN'S LABYRINTH*
WATER

This is a no-brainer.

Achievement in makeup

APOCALYPTO
CLICK
PAN'S LABYRINTH*

I would have thought for sure this would go to Mel Gibson's dumb-looking feature if he hadn't irritated the entire world last year. It's not politically correct to give him an award. Pan's Labyrinth deserves it anyway, even though I'm sure it's tearing up the Academicians to have to choose between that film and an Adam Sandler/Kate Beckinsale vehicle.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

BABEL
THE GOOD GERMAN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL*
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN

It's Philip Glass, duh.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

"I Need to Wake Up" - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
"Listen" - DREAMGIRLS
"Love You I Do" - DREAMGIRLS
"Our Town" - CARS
"Patience" - DREAMGIRLS

I dunno, it's definitely Dreamgirls, because they'll feel bad that they didn't nominate it for Best Picture, but I'm guessing on the song.

Best motion picture of the year

BABEL
THE DEPARTED
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE*
THE QUEEN

Tell me a movie that you liked better. I'm nervous about this though. Clint Eastwood tends to be more praised the older he gets. The Queen won't win because of the Formula, and Babel won the Golden Globe, so that's not a good sign. The Departed should be second place, but won't win. I want the Academy to redeem themselves so badly and wipe off the shame of Crash and A Beautiful Mind. This is your chance, people! Vote accordingly!

Best animated short film

THE DANISH POET
LIFTED
THE LITTLE MATCHGIRL
MAESTRO
NO TIME FOR NUTS

Best live action short film

BINTA AND THE GREAT IDEA (BINTA Y LA GRAN IDEA)
ÉRAMOS POCOS (ONE TOO MANY)
HELMER & SON
THE SAVIOUR
WEST BANK STORY

Achievement in sound editing

APOCALYPTO
BLOOD DIAMOND
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST

I just haven't seen enough of these to make an informed decision of my own, but I'm sure Clint Eastwood will get his awards somehow.

Achievement in sound mixing

APOCALYPTO
BLOOD DIAMOND
DREAMGIRLS
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST

See above category and substitute "musical biopic" for Clint Eastwood.

Achievement in visual effects

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST*
POSEIDON
SUPERMAN RETURNS

There is simply no contest for this one.

Adapted screenplay

BORAT CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED
LITTLE CHILDREN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL*

This is how they will prove themselves hip and with it, and maybe Borat deserves it for being pretty clever, but Notes on a Scandal was a far better movie.

Original screenplay

BABEL
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE *
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN

Keep your fingers crossed.

*Although we don't get the added benefits like free screeners and bribes from Jamie Foxx.